Kontraspionage, kultur og kontinuitet i Kreml

Et efterretningsteoretisk perspektiv på Ruslands interventioner i Ukraine

Sammendrag

By applying the specialized terminology and theoretical approaches of the field of intelligence analysis, this article investigates Russian hybrid warfare in the case of Ukraine in order to offer a fuller understanding of this disputed phenomenon. Most scholars have addressed the concept of Russian hybrid warfare through a rather classical war-theoretical approach. This article, however, argues that any analysis of Russian warfare should take as its point of departure the extensive and historically consistent influence of the country’s security services. The liberal analysis presented here reveals the prevailing continuity that characterizes Russian foreign policy, including the country’s current actions in Ukraine. Most importantly, the liberal approach sheds light on the sources of this continuity, finding them embedded primarily within the security apparatus and its peculiar, strategic culture and mindset. This means that Russia’s military actions are based on the assumption that the threat from the West is imminent, and on a fundamental focus on regime security. Russian warfare today is not the result of a new, coherent military doctrine or a belief in newfound superiority as proponents of the non-liberal approach often argue – instead, it is rather born out of fear.